Breeders’ Cup betting: another day of uncashed tickets; is there a “winning system” for the horse races?

Before I launch into my idea for a new “winning system,” a few comments about the races are in order.  On Friday, Zenyatta stayed undefeated in nine races when she won the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic by 1-1/2 lengths over Cocoa Beach.  The filly’s impressive win may result in her being named horse of the year.   The race may be viewed here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-W7WrdDgg0

ZENYATTA WINS!

ZENYATTA WINS!

On Saturday, Midnight Lute won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint for the second year in a row as jockey Garrett Gomez won his third race of the day.  (Mr. Gomez also won while riding Albertus Maximus and Midshipman.  He was third on Whatsthescript (IRE) in the Mile.)   In the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday, Curlin was unable to defend his title and may have lost his chance for horse of the year honors.  Raven’s Pass led a 1-2 British sweep of the Classic with Henrythenavigator placing second. 

It should be noted that horse racing guru Andrew Beyer tipped off the racing public of the potential for Raven’s Pass to win the Classic.

“Besides Curlin, the most talented horses in the field are the three European invaders — Duke of Marmalade, Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass — who have accounted for 10 Grade I wins against the  best competition on the continent,” Mr. Beyer wrote in his column that appeared Friday morning in the Washington Post.  Raven’s Pass is the only one of the three who appears to be coming into the Classic in peak form, and I will gamble that he takes to the Pro-Ride and pulls an upset.”

My “winning system”

Now to my winning system: pick the same three horses (i.e., 1-2-3, or 3-6-9, or 4-5-6, or any three numbers you want) in each and every race to win.  Using 3-6-9, here is how my winning system would have worked on Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup if $6 to win was bet on each horse.

FIRST RACE (MARATHON) — $18 bet for no return.  (The winner, Muhannak (IRE), was No. 5.)

SECOND RACE (TURF SPRINT) — No. 9 Desert Code paid $75.  Betting $6 to win, the take was $225. 

THIRD RACE (DIRT MILE) — $18 bet for no return.  (The winner, Albertus Maximus, was No. 7.)

FOURTH RACE (MILE) — $18 bet for no return.  (The winner, Goldikova (IRE), was No. 4.)

FIFTH RACE (JUVENILE) — $18 bet for no return.  (The winner, Midshipman, was No. 11.)

SIXTH RACE (JUVENILE TURF) — $18 bet for no return.  (The winner, Donativum (GB), was No. 4.)

SEVENTH RACE (SPRINT) — $18 bet for no return.  (The winner, Midnight Lute, was No. 4.)  (Horse racing writer Billy Witz of The New York Times wrote that “Midnight Lute was the nickname given years ago to the University of Arizona men’s basketball coach Lute Olson by Jerry Tarkanian, his counterpart at Nevada-Las Vegas, after Olson swooped in to steal a prize recruit from him.)

EIGHTH RACE (TURF) — No. 9 Conduit (IRE) paid $13.60.  Betting $6 to win, the take was $40.80.

NINTH RACE (CLASSIC) — $18 bet for no return.  (The winner, Raven’s Pass, was No. 8.)

Now for the net gain or net loss.  Amount wagered: $18 x 9 = $162.  Amount collected: $265.80.  Net gain: $103.80.

A “winning system” remains elusive

While the result looks impressive, the nice take depended on winning the biggest longshot of the day: Desert Code’s surprising win in the Turf Sprint.  The longshot colt had to pass eight horses in the final 150 yards to edge past Diabolical by a half-length.   Without Desert Code’s longshot win, it would have been just another losing day at the race track by the user of my alleged winning system.

My conclusion: I still have not found a “winning system.”

Photo Credit:

Zenyatta in the Ladies’ Classic (photo by Bob Mayberger; copyright @ Storm Watch Photo 2008)

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