Initial unemployment compensation claims in Washington surged after the government lock down of workers

GOVERNOR JAY INSLEE (D-WASH.) WARNED THAT HIS STATE COULD HAVE 64,000 CORONAVIRUS INFECTIONS AND 1,900 DEATHS BY MAY 2020.  HE LATER BANNED “NON-ESSENTIAL” EMPLOYMENT

Inslee made his comments at a news conference on March 10, 2020. At left is Suzi LeVine, the Director of Employment Security

Photo Credit: TVW

Many are seriously questioning the drastic steps taken by government for the expressed purpose of easing the COVID-19 pandemic.  Unjustified fears about potential deaths to be caused by the pandemic were the result of faulty government “modeling.”  On March 16, 2020, the government said that up to 2.2 million Americans would die.  On April 8, 2020, the government revised this figure to about 60,000.

Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO), said at a news conference on March 3, 2020 in Geneva: “Globally, about 3.4 percent of reported Covid-19 cases have died.”

On March 23, 2020, the Governor of the state of Washington issued Proclamation 20-25 shutting down all “non-essential” employment in the state.  The proclamation stated: “All people in Washington State shall immediately cease leaving their homes or place of residence except: (1) to conduct or participate in essential activities, and/or (2) for employment in essential business services.”

The proclamation resulted in a spike of unemployment compensation claims.  For the three weeks ending April 4, 2020, there were 481,000 claims the unemployment compensation.

Despite “widely hyped mortality rates [that] greatly exaggerate the risk [the] exaggerated estimates continue to grab the headlines,” said one commentator early into the pandemic. Source: Alan Reynolds, COVID-19 Deaths and Incredible WHO Estimates (Cato Institute March 4, 2020). “The WHO’s alleged 3.4% mortality rate is noting more than sensationalist nonsense.”

The claims were reported by Suzi LeVine, the Commissioner of the Washington State Employment Security Department:

Week ending March 21, 2020 — 128,962

Week ending March 28, 2020 — 181,975

Week ending April 4, 2020 — 170,063

LeVine said the number of new claims was seven times more than the peak week during the 2008-09 recession. The new claims can also be compared to the week ending March 7, 2020, when there were 6,548 initial claims.

“It remains critical that people stay home and healthy, that is paramount,” LeVine said in a press release dated April 9, 2020. “The increased utilization of unemployment insurance across the state demonstrates that more and more people are abiding by this order.”

Through April 10, 2020, the Washington State Department of Health reported 10,224 confirmed cases of COVID-19 together with 491 deaths of persons with the virus.  (Dying with the virus is not the same as dying because of the virus.)

Using the above figures, the ratios are 47:1 (new claims to confirmed cases) ) and 980:1 (new claims to deaths).  These figures understate the employment problem because government workers are being paid without working and many self-employed persons are not eligible for unemployment compensation.

In many counties there have been less than 20 confirmed cases (Asotin, Clallam, Columbia, Ferry, Garfield, Grays Harbor, Kittitas, Klickitat, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Okanogan, Pacific, Pend Oreille, San Juan, Skamania, Stevens, Wahkiakum and Whitman counties).  Adams, Asotin, Clallam, Columbia,  Cowlitz, Douglas, Ferry, Garfield,  Grays Harbor, Kittitas, Lincoln, Mason, Okanogan, Pacific, Pend Oreille, San Juan, Skamania, Stevens, Wahkiakum, Walla Walla and Whitman counties reported no deaths for persons with the virus.  Chelan, Franklin, Grant, Island, Kitsap, Klickitat, Lewis, Skagit and Thurston  counties each reported less than 10 deaths for persons with the virus.

UPDATE ON APRIL 24, 2020 — “[S]tate officials expect total claims could rise to between 900,000 to 1 million for the week ending Saturday [April 25, 2020], said ESD commissioner Suzi LeVine at a Thursday news conference.”  Source: Paul Roberts, Officials say nearly 1 million Washingtonians could be on unemployment by next week as coronavirus shutdown wracks the economy (Seattle Times — April 23, 2020).

Through April 23, 2020, the Washington State Department of Health reported 12,753 confirmed cases of COVID-19 together with 711 deaths of persons with the virus. Assuming 1.0 million unemployment claims, the ratios are 78:1 (new claims to confirmed cases) and 1,406:1 (news claims to deaths).

 

Are some confirmed cases of Covid-19 actually some other variety of the corona virus?

VIROLOGIST CHRISTIAN DROSTEN OF BERLIN

How many people are really infected with Covid-19?

Photo Credit: En24 News

Are some confirmed case of Covid-19 (the “novel” coronavirus) really some other variety of the corona virus? If so, the number of true Covid-19 infections may be substantially overstated.

The “novel” coronavirus strain, also known as 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV), is one of seven that are known to infect humans. Coronaviruses can cause everything from the common cold to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).

“Novel coronavirus, also called COVID-19, is the newest discovered coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China.  It belongs in the same family of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV.” Source: Coronavirus (COVID-19) — Laboratory testing, Diagnosis, Guidelines (Laboratory Info — Feb. 22, 2020).

Doctors use a laboratory test called Reverse Transcriptase PCR Diagnostic Panel (RT-PCR) to diagnose severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, or SARS-CoV-2, the virus said to cause Covid-19 illness.

“The test is intended for use with upper and lower respiratory specimens collected from persons who meet CDC criteria for testing.”  Source: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention).

“RT-PCR has been used to measure viral load with HIV and may also be used with other RNA viruses such as measles and mumps,” said Melissa Conrad Stoppler, M.D., a board certified pathologist trained at the University of North Carolina.

What if the RT-PCR test is positive?  “This means that you have been infected by the virus. But it doesn’t necessarily mean that COVID-19 is the cause (or only cause) of your illness. A co-infection with another virus or bacteria could be the cause of your symptoms.” Source: Heidi Moawad, M.D., How Coronavirus (COVID-19) Is Diagnosed (Very Well Health — March 21, 2020). (Hereafter Moawad.)

Paul Hunter, M.D., a professor of medicine at the  University of East Anglia in Norwich, England, noted that coronavirus is named after its “crown” as seen by an electron microscope.  He said that some suspected “confirmed” cases of Covid-19 may be caused by viruses other than Covid-19.

This would be expected to lead to an over-diagnosis of the disease.

Christian Drosten, a virologist who is the director of the Institute for Virology at Berlin’s Charite Hospital, developed one of the first tests for 2019-nCoV at his lab.  “Drosten . . . said there was no chance that these tests would misfire and tell someone they have the new coronavirus when they don’t.”  Source: Hilary Brueck, There’s only one way to know if you have the coronavirus (Business Insider).  “We’ve validated the test for exclusivity for the new virus,” Drosten said. (Id.)

“We in Germany were simply at the forefront in terms of diagnostics,” Drosten said. Source:  Frank Jordans, Experts: Rapid testing helps explain few German virus deaths (Associated Press — March 9, 2020).

“Presumably between 60 and 70 percent of the people will get infected but we don’t know the timeframe,” Drosten said. “It can be two years or even longer. It will be more problematic if the infections occur in a short period of time.” Source: Sebastian Kettley, Coronavirus horror: 70% of humanity faces infection — Is COVID-19 worse than Spanish Flu? (Express — March 2, 2020).

“Coronavirus infections are surging worldwide but as little as one in 33 COVID-19 cases are being reported by authorities, an epidemiologist has claimed.”  Sebastian Kettley, Coronavirus: Only 1 in 33 infections are reported as COVID 19 expert warns of hidden figure (Express — March 2, 2020).

Diagnostic Radiology News (Feb. 26, 2020) reported:

“In a study of more than 1,000 patients published in the journal Radiology, chest CT outperformed lab testing in the diagnosis of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The researchers concluded that CT should be used as the primary screening tool for COVID-19 (also called SARS-CoV-2).”

“Chest imaging studies, including chest X-ray and chest computerized tomography (CT) may show changes with COVID-19 infection, but these changes are not specifically diagnostic of this infection, and can be present with other lung conditions like pneumonia and bronchitis.”  Source: Moawad.